網路治理的地緣政治:邁向「數位冷戰」或「數位合作」?

議程

14:00–14:05     活動介紹

14:05–15:45     焦點座談

  • 主持人-陳文生 顧問(NII財團法人中華民國國家資訊基本建設產業發展協進會)
  • 與談人-
    • 劉大年 主任(中華經濟研究院區域發展研究中心)
    • 黃勝雄 執行長(財團法人台灣網路資訊中心)
    • 彭睿仁 助理教授(東吳大學政治學系)
    • 李瓊莉 教授(國立政治大學國際關係研究中心)

15:45–16:00        現場問答

會議紀要

劉大年 主任(中華經濟研究院區域發展研究中心)簡報下載

劉大年主任首先提到,過去臺灣多強調製造並提倡實體貨物貿易,但隨著數位經濟的興起,對於包括臺灣在內的許多國家造成變化。目前全球數位貿易規範大致區分為三種體系:(1)多元模式,如:WTO(World Trade Organization,世界貿易組織)多邊體系,但因談判速度緩慢,各國立場分歧,導致目前尚未出現重大進展;(2)FTA(Free Trade Agreement,自由貿易協定)或數位貿易協定,因為涉及國家較少,相對容易有進展,例如:RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,區域全面經濟夥伴協定),以及臺灣最關切的CPTPP(Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership,跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定)等;(3)聯合宣言、倡議或合作平臺,例如:中國在2020年提出的全球數據安全倡議、美國與歐盟今年簽署的未來網路宣言、印太經濟架構,以及臺美21世紀貿易倡議等,這類原則性的倡議較不具體,有賴進一步深化。綜合而言,數位貿易的現況可說是各國在不同平臺下的合縱連橫。

未來可觀察的重點包括:未來網路宣言的發展,這是美歐民主盟國的雛形,與中國、俄國執行的數位隔離政策形成明顯對比;中國透過加入DEPA(Digital Economy Partnership Agreement,數位經濟夥伴關係協定)搶占數位經濟發展主導權,雖然數位影響力有限,但期望透過協議突破美國限制。數位貿易發展議題將成為美中競逐的焦點,美中對抗疫情及俄烏戰爭等地緣政治風險,亦促使各國更為關注供應鏈靭性議題。

未來全球數位貿易議題將會形成美歐、中國為首的兩大陣營,其中美歐在相關議題歧見較小,且鼓勵產業創新的前提下,預期會以維持產業競爭力及刺激經濟為目的,於數位貿易中取得共識;而中國也將持續擴大自身在數位經濟與網路的市場商機,並以市場為籌碼,要求外國業者尊重國家主權,建立符合中國利益的數位貿易規範。

有鑑於數位貿易已是全球區域經濟的重要潮流,劉主任建議,臺灣應當善用資通訊與半導體產業的發展趨勢,積極參與全球數位經濟相關的談判與合作,例如:爭取加入DEPA,有效的在數位與實體貿易兩方面於兩大陣營間取得槓桿。

此外,未來的全球貿易不再侷限於實體貨物,各式資料服務、金融科技等交易,將是經濟成長的主要動能,跨境數位貿易活動在疫情下需求大增,臺灣也應積極面對數位轉型趨勢,並規劃未來的發展藍圖,主動參與制定數位貿易規範。

黃勝雄 執行長(財團法人台灣網路資訊中心)簡報下載

黃勝雄執行長首先以「修昔底德陷阱」(Thucydides’s Trap)理論為引,說明當新興勢力威脅到現有強國的國際霸主地位時,形成的嚴重結構性壓力導致明顯的戰爭傾向,而新興勢力崛起的速度與現有強國勢力的穩定性,則會決定陷阱的強度與戰爭行為發生的機率。美中之間的關係便是如此,且短期之內雙方的競爭關係恐怕不會消失。

從經濟觀點分析戰爭行為,早期第一、二次世界大戰結束後,諸多國家在布列敦森林會議(Bretton Woods Conference)討論如何避免未來再次發生戰爭,各國亦構思出讓國家與國家間建立依存關係,將產品供應鏈切割到不同國家,打破原本各國在貿易方面多採取保護主義的做法,透過降低關稅的方式來實現,也因此產生全球貿易的概念。

到了七零年代,自由主義學者共同探討如何透過降低關稅達到經濟發展的效果;八零年代則是以零關稅為推動目標;到了九零年代,開始出現國與國之間,或多個國家共同簽署貿易協定後,必須調整國內相關法規以滿足國際協定的情況,導致國際規範開始影響國內政策法規,便產生了全球有效性(global efficiency)與地方規則相互牴觸的情況。

相對於此,網路治理則是由多方利害關係人共同訂定政策或規範,若限縮在技術領域(Technical Interest Group,TIG),僅關注域名(Domain Name)、IP位址(IP Address)與協定(Protocal),且要求單一、完全互通與穩定的網路環境時,這個治理架構便具有高度的強制執行力,只要任何一方違反這些規範,可能就會導致域名或IP位址無法運作。

過去在傳統農業社會中,私部門較少參與公共政策的制定,但今日數位領域中的許多管制作為,則是發自於私部門的自我規範。若是涉及跨境的網路司法管轄權議題,目前主要的解決方式包括「布達佩斯公約」(Budapest Convention),或是透過國家間的合作協議,但因為缺乏透明度,容易衍生其他問題。除了上述方式之外,可利用的工具還包括:程式碼(透過技術標準來訂定規則)、法律,以及技術規範,以TWNIC的DNS RPZ(Response Policy Zone)服務為例,雖然執行的依據是法律文書,但加入的業者係自行訂定技術規範以將侵權網站下架,TWNIC透過與dot Asia(DotAsia Organisation,亞洲域名註冊機構)的合作,甚至可將該機制的效力延伸到境外。

彭睿仁 助理教授(東吳大學政治學系)簡報下載

彭睿仁教授係從數位主權切入地緣政治的討論。首先網路治理是沒有疆域與國界的,所謂主權的概念,無論是個人主權或國家主權,基本上都具有明確的範圍;網路虛擬空間裡國家主權的主張,是無法觸碰或看得到的領域,若要具體落實網路主權的概念,可能會是透過平臺的治理。例如歐盟的通用資料保護規則(General Data Protection Regulation,GDPR)、數位服務法(Digital Service Act,DSA)、數位市場法(Digital Market Act,DMA)等法規,便是為了避免使用者的資料在平臺使用上遭到侵犯,或是避免平臺市場中的每位參與者受到不平等(排擠)的待遇。這些超大型平臺對於國家主權具有影響力,因為他們可能會影響到國家政策的法規制定,並且影響政府的稅收,也會讓民眾產生數位依賴,此外,資料在地化的政策或資料擁有權等因素,甚至會影響到國家安全。

彭教授認為,主權的影響力是可以擴張的,前提是必須存在與這些主要數位平臺相互匹敵的市場或大型平臺,臺灣目前要做的並非建立出超大平臺,而是建構一個可以保障我們自有市場或數位主權不會受到外國入侵的環境。

「資料」是數位主權的核心,極端的資料在地化案例如中國與俄羅斯,在這些極端的數位主權中,個人資料的所有權屬於國家而非當事人,因為這些資料會涉及整體國家安全的維持。彭教授在報告中也分享了不同國家的資料在地化作為,以及歐盟DSA對於不同規模平臺規範的內涵,並進一步闡述歐盟DMA中有關守門人的地位與法定義務。

臺灣或許無法像美國政府直接對這些大型平臺業者提出要求,但至少可以透過與平臺間以法治為基礎的合作,類似DSA或 DMA,逐漸累積我國在數位主權的影響力。此外,亦可仿照歐盟的方式,與周遭國家(如:韓國或日本),在非涉及個人資料的一定範圍內設立共同開放的雲端交換空間,形成民主數位主權的結盟,進而建立我國在資訊或網路空間中的地緣政治戰略合作地位。

李瓊莉 教授(國立政治大學國際關係研究中心)

李瓊莉教授從國際關係研究中的國際合作角度,解析網路治理與地緣政治的議題。全球或區域治理多為跨境情境,治理的手段包括:法律、規則、規範等,涉及的行為者不僅是國家政府,非國家行為者也很重要,同時亦涉及非法律的行為規則。

網路治理源於網路存在使用上的風險,以及易受傷害的特質,包括:網路犯罪、駭客、數位武器的發展,以及違反人權等,此外,數位落差、標準化等使用上的障礙,也是網路治理期望處理的問題。網路科技在現今掀起了科技掛帥的大博奕(New Game),如同過去的能源危機,因此產生了網路治理與地緣政治的關聯性。

地緣政治的競爭是以美國、中國為主的領導權競爭,美國想要維持網路科技的領導地位,而中國是強勁的新興之秀,夾在中間的國家則是傾向追求戰略自主性。李教授也觀察到,近期國際間有諸多關於網路治理領域的倡議發展,從原本屬於部門之間的會議性質,提升為全球性高峰會議題。例如:美國移轉到以價值為基礎的結盟,未來網路宣言就是以人權為核心提出五大原則,參與者多為民主國家;歐盟是從數位主權移轉到數位外交,期望透過外交戰略、數位同盟關係,處理因應俄烏戰爭產生的各式網路問題;中國則是從數位主權移轉到建立規範,日前宣布成立「世界互聯網大會」國際組織,觀察其參加者可發現包括極權國家政府與大型企業,然而這樣的組合可能會存在利益衝突。

從國際合作的觀點來看,強權要成功掌握全球網路治理的領導權要素,除了擴張自己的勢力之外,也要確保自身的相對利得,以及其他參與者的絕對利得;國際間的任何倡議皆須受到他國響應才真正具有影響力,因此,其他國家的加入相當重要。

最後李教授提到,在全球網路治理分裂下,Paris Call(巴黎呼籲)提供了地方政府參與的空間,是臺灣未來可以嘗試參與的管道。

提問與回應

Q1.今日講者的討論多是著重在既有地緣政治架構下的數位外交議題,未來是否可能創造出新形態的價值導向政治框架?

劉大年主任:「地緣政治」並非新名詞,只是近期更為凸顯。有些協定的地緣政治色彩較不明顯,例如:CPTPP,中國申請加入CPTPP最大的障礙是該國的網路環境存在諸多限制,明顯與規範不符,一旦中國順利加入CPTPP之後,美國就必須透過其他方式與其制衡。許多國家加入區域貿易協定的障礙是,數位經濟的法規必須符合美國及歐盟的高標準,特別是網路不自由的國家。

李瓊莉教授:網路主權(cyber sovereignty)與數位主權(digital sovereignty)的定義不同,在全球化的趨勢下,資料傳輸等行為已不可避免,目前所面臨的挑戰是不當使用及使用上的不方便。因為網路治理涉及許多非政府行為者,其中「市場」占了大部分,若由市場的需求或是企業的力量來主導整個互賴關係,就有可能發展出市場導向(議題導向)的治理方式。

黃勝雄執行長:實體與虛擬的邊界其實是分離的,即便烏克蘭被夷為平地,烏克蘭的國碼頂級域名.ua仍可運作,重點在於利害關係人永遠有自己的議程(agenda),會主導決策的制定及推動。

彭睿仁助理教授:地緣政治不會限制在實體的地緣,例如:俄烏雖然距離臺灣很遙遠,一旦中國介入時,也可能對臺灣產生連帶的地緣政治影響。當超大型平臺已經在許多國家都落地時,傳統的地緣政治理論可能就不再適用。

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The Geopolitics of Internet Governance – Towards “Digital Cold War” or “Digital Cooperation”?

Information

Time: 2022/7/27 02:00-04:00PM
Venue: IEAT International Conference Center Meeting 8F Room 2
Moderator:
●      Chen, Vincent (Advisor,  NII Enterprise Promotion Association)

Panelists:
●      Lee, Chyungly (Professor, Institute of International Relation, NCCU)
●      Peng, Jui-Jen (Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University)
●      Huang, Kenny (CEO, TWNIC)
●      Liu, Da-Nien (Director, The Regional Development Study Center, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research)

Session Details

Observed by Wolfgang Kleinwächter, a professor at Aarhus University in Denmark, the competition for Internet Governance models in 2021 has grown polarization. On one hand, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) promotes new agreements on strengthening the state’s control over the Internet.  On the other hand, the Biden Administration hosted “The Summit for Democracy” gathering more than 100 government leaders to talk about the approach to counter digital authoritarianism.

The panel invited various experts to address issues such as: with the high involvement of geopolitics and economic interests, will the global Internet governance regime lead to “Digital Cold War” or “Digital Cooperation”?  Taiwan has taken part in both “Declaration for the Future of the Internet” and “The Summit for Democracy”, but will the current international agenda affect Taiwan’s approach to Internet governance?

Highlights

Like many other countries, Taiwan has moved its focus from manufacturing and goods trading to the digital economy.  Prof. Liu explained in his address that, there are three models of global digital trade norms: 1) multilateral system, such as the WTO, 2) free trade agreement (FTA) such as RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) and CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, 3) Joint declarations or initiatives, such as the Global Data Security Initiative proposed by China in 2020, Declaration for the Future of the Internet initiated by the US government, and Taiwan-US 21st Century Trade Initiative.  Among the three models, multilateral systems tend to be slow in progress, while FTAs seem to move faster and Joint declarations look the least specific.

In the future, global digital trade will be split into two camps led by the US-EU and China. Prof. Liu commented, because the US and Europe have less disagreement about the related issues and have the common goal of encouraging business innovation, it is expected that they will reach consensus in the digital trade.   Nethertheless, China will continue to leverage its market power to establish digital trade norms in line with China’s interests, and at the same time expand its digital economy opportunities.

Liu further suggested Taiwan should take its ICT manufacturing and semiconductor advantages and actively participate in the global digital economy negotiations, such as  DEPA, in order to have greater leverage between the two camps.

Dr. Kenny Huang gave his opinion by first citing the theory of “Thucydides’s Trap”.  The theory is used to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.  The rise of emerging powers and the stability of existing powers will determine the intensity of the trap and the probability of war. The theory also applies to the potential conflict between the US and China. The competition between the two counties may continue for a while, Dr. Huang commented. 

Huang then explained the rise of the global trading concept after World War I and II in the Bretton Woods Conference.  Global trading continued evolving, and more trade agreements were signed in the 1990s, resulting in many domestic regulations adjusted to meet the requirements of the international trade agreements. Conflicts between global efficiency and local rules occured. However, Internet Governance norms worked differently. “If we only talked about technical coordination such as IP address and domain name”, said Dr. Huang, “the Internet norm works very effectively since the Internet just doesn’t work if you violate it.”

TWNIC’s DNS RPZ (Response Policy Zone) service was mentioned as an example of the private sector-initiated norm.  Through the cooperation with DotAsia Organization, the service even extends its effectiveness overseas.

Dr. Peng, Jui-Jen addressed the issues from the perspective of digital sovereignty.  He believes that digital sovereignty is intangible, and it can be carried out by regulating the Internet platforms.  The implementation examples include EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), Digital Service Act (DSA) and Digital Market Act (DMA). 

Dr. Peng believes that the Internet sovereignty impact can be enlarged. What Taiwan needs is an environment in which our digital sovereignty is not subject to foreign invasion.  He also believes that data is the core of digital sovereignty.  By sharing the data localization rules, Dr. Peng further elaborated on the status and legal obligations of gatekeepers in EU’s DMA. He lastly suggested that, 

Taiwan may accumulate the country’s influence in digital sovereignty by cooperating with the big platforms. In addition, Dr. Peng suggested, “Taiwan may also work with South Korea and Japan to form an open cloud space for exchanging non-sensitive data, and form a democratic digital sovereignty alliance to strengthen the island’s geopolitical strategic cooperation in Cyberspace.

Professor Chyungly Lee from the International Relations Research Center stated that governance may be shown in the forms of laws, rules and norms. The actors involved include both state and non-state actors.  The Internet geopolitical competition is currently dominated by the United States and China.  The United States wants to maintain its leadership in Internet technology, while China is a strong emerging star.

Professor Lee also observed that there have been many international initiatives in the field of Internet governance recently. Among the initiatives, the United States formed more value-based alliances, for example, the Declaration of Future Internet. There are five principles in the Declaration and the core is human rights.  The participants are mostly democratic countries.  Meanwhile, China is shifting from digital sovereignty to establishing international norms.  The country recently announced the establishment of the “World Internet Conference” international organization. The members include dictatorship governments and large tech companies, Lee foresees the conflict of interests in the combination.

From the international cooperation perspective, to take lead in the Internet governance models, the nation powers must not only expand their own power, but also ensure their allies get benefits as well.  Lastly, Professor Lee suggested that Taiwan may consider joining the Paris Call initiative in the near future.

Dr. Da-Nien Liu responded to the question raised from the floor asking if it is possible to create a new value-oriented political framework in the future.  He said, Geopolitics is not a new term, but it has become more prominent recently.  He took CPTPP as an example, it is a FTA with less geographical flavor.  However, it is still hard for China to join since the country’s Internet environment does not meet the requirements.  The hurdle for many countries to join regional trade agreements is that digital economy regulations must meet the high standards set by the United States and the European Union, especially in countries that do not have free internet access.

Professor Peng commented that geopolitics will not be limited to physical geography. For example, although Russia and Ukraine are far away from Taiwan, the war may have an associated geopolitical impact on Taiwan once China intervenes.